The supply and demand functions for Turkey’s manufacturing industry: Simultaneous equation systems<p>Türkiye’nin imalat sanayi ihracat ve ithalatının talep ve arz fonksiyonu: Eşanlı denklem modeli
Keywords:
Export, import, income and price elasticities, manufacturing industry, the two-stage least squares method, İhracat, ithalat, gelir ve fiyat esnekliği, imalat sanayi, iki aşamalı en küçük kareler yöntemiAbstract
Foreign trade policies applied to achieve economic growth and structural changes in the economies have an important role. The applications of these policies to determination of the direction, composition, and volume of exports and imports have affected on the price and income elasticities of exported and imported goods. Therefore, the export and the import policies must be analyzed with regards to the price and income elasticities. Considering the studies done so far, econometric analysis of supply and demand functions of export and import are generally seen analyzed based on a single equation model. Also simultaneous relationship between the supply and demand is mostly ignored. For this reason, the major aim of this study is to examine the simultaneous relationship between the supply and demand functions of export and import of manufacturing industry by using Two Stage Least Squares Method. According to results of estimation income and price elasticities for supply and demand of import are found compatible with the theory. Both in export and import demand equation of manufacturing, income and price elasticities are found positive and negative respectively. And also export and import supply elasticities for manufacturing are compatible with the theoretical expectations.
Özet
Ekonominin büyümesi ve yapısal değişiminde, dış ticaret politikalarının önemli bir yeri vardır. İhracat ve ithalatın yönü, hacmi ve kompozisyonunu belirlemek amacıyla alınan kararlar, malların fiyat ve gelir esnekliklerine etkide bulunmaktadır. Bu nedenle bir ülkenin ihracat ve ithalat rejimi incelenirken, fiyat ve gelir esneklikleri de dikkate alınmalıdır. Bugüne kadar yapılan çalışmalar gözden geçirildiğinde, genellikle ihracat ve ithalat arz ve talep fonksiyonlarının ekonometrik analizinin tek denklemli model temel alınarak incelendiği görülmektedir. İhracat arz ve talep fonksiyonları arasındaki eşanlı gelir ve fiyat ilişkisi çoğunlukla göz ardı edilmektedir. Bu nedenle bu çalışmanın temel amacı; ihracat arz ve ithalat talep fonksiyonları arasındaki eşanlılık ilişkisini imalat sanayi özelinde, eşanlı denklem sistemlerinden iki aşamalı en küçük kareler yöntemi kullanarak incelemektir. Tahmin sonuçlarına göre, imalat sanayi ithalat arz ve talebine ait gelir ve fiyat esneklikleri ile imalat sanayi ihracat talebine ait gelir ve fiyat esnekliği ve ihracat arz denklemine ait gelir ve fiyat esnekliklerinin işareti teoriyle uyumlu bulunmuştur.
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