Forest fire risk analysis via integration of GIS, RS and AHP: The Case of Çanakkale, Turkey
Keywords:
Forest Fire, Risk Analysis, GIS, AHP, Remote Sensing, TurkeyAbstract
Forest fire is one of the high-risk natural disasters in the north-western Anatolia section of Turkey. This paper suggests a new approach based on Geographic Information Systems (GIS), Remote Sensing (RS) and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) for the development of forest fire-risk model. The proposed approach includes human factors as well as environmental factors. In this context, the 12 variables defined under anthropogenic and physical factors in the proposed model are the slope, elevation, aspect, vegetation type, crown closure, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), distance to road, settlement, and agricultural areas, population density, previous fires, and Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI). For each variable, a layer was created in the GIS database environment. GIS-layers were classified, considering the risk of potentially generating forest-fire of the relevant variables. In addition, to generate risk maps, the weights used in these GIS-layers were obtained by applying the AHP technique. One of the major results of the study shows that the rates of “extreme”, “very high”, “high”, and “moderate” risk areas are 3.87%, 63.46%, 32.13% and 0.53%, respectively. Another important result is that there are not observed the so called “no risk" and "low risk" classes in the region. The results let us to make a conclusion that the natural and human factors having significant contributions the region to be fire-prone. Yet, these results also indicate that rather than emphasizing forest-fire preparedness and mitigation, policy-makers manage forest-fires through reactive, crisis-oriented approaches. In contrast to crisis-based management plans, this study suggests that risk-based preventive plans should be developed and implemented.
Downloads
Metrics
References
Adab, H., Kanniah, K.D. & Solaimani, K. (2013). Modeling Forest Fire Risk in the Northeast of Iran Using Remote Sensing and GIS Techniques. Nat Hazards 65 (3): 1723-1743.
Akbulak C., Tatli H., Aygün G., Çekmek M. & Sağlam B. (2017). Forest Fire Risk Analysis in Çanakkale Using Remote Sensing, GIS and AHS Methods. Project No: 116O011. The Scientific and Technical Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK).
Altan, G. & Türkeş, M. (2011). Hydroclimatologic Characteristics of the Forest Fires Occurred at the Çanakkale District and Relationship with Climate Variations. Aegean Geogrph J, 20 (2) (in Turkish).
Assaker, A., Darwish, T., Faour, G. & Noun, M. (2012). Use of Remote Sensing and GIS to Assess the Anthropogenic Impact on Forest Fires in Nahri Ibrahım Watersheed Lebanon. Lebanese Sci J 13: 15-28.
Biasi, R., Colantoni, A., Ferrara, C., Ranalli, F., Salvati, L. (2015). In-Between Sprawl and Fires: Long-Term Forest Expansion and Settlement Dynamics at the Wildland–Urban İnterface in Rome, Italy. Int J Sustain Dev World Ecol 22 (6): 467-475.
Bilgili, E., Sağlam, B. & Başkent, E.Z. (2001). Fire Management Fire Hazard Rates and GIS. Sci and Eng 4: 88-97.
Bonneau, L.R, Shields, K.S. & Civco, D.L. (1999). Using Satellite Images to Classify and Analyze the Health of Hemlock Forests Infested by the Hemlock Woolly Adelgid. Biol Invasions 1: 255–267.
Camia, A., Amatulli, G. &San Miguel- Ayanz J. (2008). Past and Future Trends of Forest Fire in Europe. Ispra: Institute for Environment and Sustainability (EUR Technical Report EUR 23427 EN- 2008), European Commission JRC.
Carvalho, A., Flannigan, M.D., Logan, K.A., Miranda, I. & Borrego, C. (2008). Fire Activity in Portugal and Relationship to Weather and the Canadian Fire Weather Index System. Intl J Wildland Fire 17: 328-338.
Carvalho, A.C., Carvalho, A., Martins, H., Marques, C., Rocha, A., Borrego, C., Viegas, D.X. & Miranda, A.I. (2011). Fire Weather Risk Assessment under Climate Change Using a Dynamical Downscaling Approach. Env Model Softw 26: 1123-1133.
Chandra, S. (2005). Application of Remote Sensing and GIS Technology in Forest Fire Risk Modelling and Management of Forest Fires: A Case Study in the Gargwal Himalayan Region. Oosterom, PV, Zlatanova, S; Fendel, EM (eds), Geo-information for disaster management, pp 1239-1254. New York, Springer-Verlag Berlin, Heidelberg.
Clarke, K.C. (1997). Getting Started with Geographic Information Systems. Prentıce Hall Inc. New Jersey.
Çekmek, M. (2018). Analysis of Wildland Forest Fires by Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index Method: Çanakkale Case, Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart Unıversıty, Institute of Social Sciences (Unpublished Master’s Thesis), (in Turkish).
Deeming, J.E, Burgan, R.E. & Cohen, J.D. (1977). The National Fire- danger Rating System 1978. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. Intermountain Forest and Range Experiment Station, Ogde, UT.
Dimitrakopulos, A.M., Bemmerzouk, A.M. & Mitsopoulos, I.D. (2011). Evaluation of the Canadian Fire Weather Index System in Eastern Mediterranean Environment. Meteo Appl 18:83-93.
Dogan, H.M., Celep, F. & Karaer, F. (2009). Evaluation of NDVI in Plant Community Composition Mapping: A Case Study for Tersakan Valley of Amasya County in Turkey. Int J Remote Sens 30: 3769 – 3798.
Dong, X.U., Shao, G., Limin, D.A.I., Zhanqing, H.A.O., Tang, L. &Wang H. (2005). Mapping Forest Fire Risk Zones with Spatial Data and Principal Component Analysis. Sci China Tech Sci 49: 140-149.
Erten, E., Kurgun, V., & Musaoglu, N. (2004). Forest Fire Risk Zone Mapping from Satellite Imagery and GIS: a Case Study. In XXth Congress of the International Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, Istanbul, Turkey (pp. 222-230).
Erten, E., Kurgu, V. & Musaoğlu, N. (2005). Establishment of Forest Fire Information System Using Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems. Union of Chambers of Turkish Engineers and Architects (UCTEA) Chamber of Surveying Engineers 10th Turkish Sci Tech Conf on Map; Ankara; Turkey (In Turkish).
Ertuğrul, M. (2005). Forest Fire Situation in Turkey and the World. ZKÜ J Faculty Forestry in Bartın, 7: 43-50 (In Turkish).
ESRI. (1999). Using Arcview GIS. Environmental System Research Institute. Inc, Redlands, CA.
Gabban, A., Ayanz, S.M.G. & Viegas, D.X. (2006). On the Suitability of the Use of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index for Forest Fire Risk Assessment. Int J Remote Sens 27:5095-5102.
GDF: Fire Statistics of General Directorate of Forest. (2007). Ankara: General Directorate Forest. Retrieved on https://www.ogm.gov.tr /ekutuphane/Sayfalar/Istatistikler.aspx (in Turkish).
Ghobadi, J.G., Gholizadeh, B. & Dashliburun M.O. (2012). Forest Fire Risk Zone Mapping from Geographic Information System in Northern Forests of Iran (Case Study, Golestan province). Int Agri Crop Sci 4 (12): 818-824.
Goldammer, J.G. & Mutch, R.W. (2001). Global Forest Fire Assessment. FAO Forest Resources Assessment Programme, Working Paper 55, Rome, Italy.
Gouveia, C.M, Trigo, R.M, Beguería, S. & Vicente-Serrano, S.M. (2017). Drought Impacts on Vegetation Activity in the Mediterranean Region: An Assessment Using Remote Sensing Data and Multi-Scale Drought Indicators. Global and Planetary Change, 151: 15-27.
Güngördü, M. (1999). Plant Geography of the Marmara Region. Istanbul University Press, Istanbul (In Turkish).
Güngöroğlu, C. (2017). Determination of Forest Fire Risk with Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process and its Mapping with the Application of GIS: The Case of Turkey/Çakırlar. Human Ecol Risk Assess, 23:2, 388-406.
Haines, A.D (1988) A Lower Atmosphere Severity Index for Wildland Fires. Natl Weather Dig 13: 23-27.
Huete, A., Leeuwen, W.V. & Justice, C. (1999). MODIS- Vegetation Index (MOD13) Algorithm Theoretical Basic Document, Arizona.
Jaiswal, K., Mukherjee, S., Mukherjee, K.D & Saxena, R. (2002). Forest Fire Risk Zone Mapping from Satellite Imagery and GIS. Int J Appl Earth Obs Geoinfo 4: 1-10.
Karabulut, M., Karakoç, A., Gürbüz & M., Kızılelma, Y. (2013). Determination of Forest Fire Risk Areas in Başkonuş Mountain (Kahramanmaraş) Using Geographical Information Systems. Int Soc Res J 6:171-179 (In Turkish).
Keetch, J.J& Byram, G. M. (1968). A Drought Index for Forest Fire Control. Res. Pap. SE-38. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, South-eastern Forest Experiment Station, Asheville, NC: USA.
Lillesand, T.M. & Kiefer, R.W. (1987). Remote Sensing and Image Interpretation. New York: John Wiley and Sons.
Longley, P.A., Goodchild, M.F., Maguire, D.J. & Rhind, D.W. (2001). Geographic Information Systems and Science. Chichester: John Wiley and Sons.
Malik, T., Rabban, G. & Farooq, M. (2013). Forest Fire Risk Zonation Using Remote Sensing and GIS Technology in Kansrao Forest Range of Rajaji National Park, Uttarakhand, India. Int J Adv Remote Sens GIS 2: 86-95.
Marble, D.H., Calkins, H.W. & Peqet, D.J. (1984). Basic Readings in Geographic Information Systems. Williamsville, NY: Spad Systems Limited.
Myneni, R.B, Keeling, C.D, Tucker, C.J, Aarar, G. & Neamani RR. (1997). Increased Plant Growth in the Northern High Latitudes from 1981 to 1991. Nature 698-702.
Özşahin, E. (2014). Forest Fire Susceptibility Analysis Using GIS and AHP: The Case of Antakya Forestry Operation Directorate Route. Educ Soc Sci J 1: 50-71.
Potter, B.E., Winkle, J.A., Dwight, F.W., Ryan, P.S. & Xindi, B. (2008). Computing the Low-Elevation Variant of the Haines Index for Fire Weather Forecasts. Weather Forecast 23: 159–167.
Pradhan, B., Suliman, B.H.D.M. & Awang, B.A.M. (2007). Forest Fire Susceptibility and Risk Mapping Using Remote Sensing and Geographical Information Systems (GIS). Disaster Manag 16: 344-352.
Saaty, T. (1980). The Analytic Hierarchy Process. McGraw Hill, New York.
Sağlam, B., Bilgili, E., Durmaz, D.B., Kadıoğulları, İ.A. & Küçük Ö. (2008). Spatio Temporal Analysis of Forest Fire Risk and Danger Using Landsat Imagery. Sensors 8: 3970-3987.
Sharma, D., Hoa, V., Cuong, V., Tuyen, T. & Sharma N. (2009). Forest Fire Risk Zonation for Jammu District Forest Division Using Remote Sensing and GIS Using Remote Sensing and GIS. 7th Regional Conference, Hanoi, Vietnam.
Soto, M.E.C. (2012). The İdentification and Assessment of Areas at Risk of Forest Fire Using Fuzzy Methodology. Appl Geogr 35: 199-207.
Sowmya, S.V. & Somashekar, R.K. (2010). Application of Remote Sensing and Geographical Information System in Mapping Forest Fire Risk Zone at Bahadra Santuary, India Imsear at Hellis. J Envir Bio 31: 969-974.
SPO (State Planning Organization). (2001). 8th Five-Year Development Plan, Forestry Specialization Report. Retrieved on www.kalkinma.gov.tr /Pages/ OzelIhtisasKomisyonuRaporlari.aspx (In Turkish).
Sringeswara, N.A, Shivanna, B.M. & Gowda, B. (2012). Forest Fire and Its Management in Kudremukh National Park. Western Ghats, India Using Remote Sensing and GIS. 13th Esri India User Conference, pp 1-9, New Delhi; India.
Tang, L., Shao, G.& Dai, L. (2009). Roles of Digital Technology in China’s Sustainable Forestry Development. Int J Sustain Dev World Ecol. 16 (2): 94-101.
Tatli H., Çekmek M., Akbulak C., Aygün G. & Sağlam B. (2017a). Investigation of Çanakkale Forest Fires by Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index. International 8th Atmospheric Sciences Symposium - Atmos2017, İstanbul, Turkey, 1-4 November 2017, vol.1, pp.372-380.
Tatli H., Akbulak C., Aygün G., Çekmek M. & Sağlam B. (2017b). Determining Risk of the Forest Fires In Çanakkale Via Geographic Information Systems and Analytic Hierarchy Process. International 8th Atmospheric Sciences Symposium - Atmos2017, İstanbul, Turkey, 1-4 November 2017, vol.1, pp.381-392
Tatli, H. & Türkeş, M. (2014). Climatological Evaluation of Haines Forest Fire Weather Index over the Mediterranean Basin. Meteo Appl 21(3):545-552.
Thakur, A.K. & Singh, D. (2014). Forest Fire Risk Zonation Using Geospital Techniques and Analytic Hierarchy Process in Dehradun District, Uttarakhand, India. Univer J Envir Res Tech 4: 82-89.
Tonini, M., Pereira, M.G, Parente, J. & Orozco, C.V. (2017). Evolution of Forest Fires in Portugal: from Spatio-Temporal Point Events to Smoothed Density Maps. Nat Hazards, 85(3), 1489-1510.
Turco, M., Llasat, C.M, Hardenberg, V.J & Provenzale, A. (2014). Climate Change Impacts on Wildfires in a Mediterranean Environment. Clim Change 125: 369-380.
Turner, A. & Lawson, B.D. (1978). Weather in the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System. A User Guide to National Standards and Practices. (Information Report BC-X-177). Canadian Forest Service, Pacific Forest Research Centre, Victoria, BC.
Türkeş, M., & Altan, G. (2012a). Meteorological and Hydro-Climatological Analysis of Large Forest Fires of Çanakkale in the Year of 2008. Aegean Geogrph J, 10(2):195-218 (in Turkish).
Türkeş, M., & Altan, G. (2012b). Analysis of the Year 2008 Fires in the Forest Lands of the Muğla Regional Forest Service by Using Drought Indices. J Human Sci, 9(1), 912-931 (in Turkish).
USGS (USA Geological Survey). (2017). Landsat (L8 OLI/TIRS) Satellite Images, at Website. Retrieved on https://earthexplorer.usgs.gov/.
Van Wagner, C.E. (1987). Development and Structure of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index. (Forestry Technical Report 35, 37). Canadian Forestry Service, Ottowa.
Versini, P., Velasco, M., Cabello, A. & Sempere-Torres, D. (2013). Hydrological Impact of forest Fires and Climate Change in Mediterranean Basin. Nat Hazards 66 (2): 609-628.
Viegas, D., Bovio, G., Ferreira, A., Nosenzo, A. & Sol, B. (1999). Comparative Study of Various Methods of Fire Danger Evaluation in Southern Europe. Int J Wildland Fire 9: 235-246.
Vilar, L., Nieto, H. & Martin M.P. (2010). Integration of Lightning- and Human-Caused Wildfire Occurrence Models. Human Ecol Risk Assess 16 (2): 340-364.
Yin, H., Kong, F. & Li, X. (2004). RS and GIS-Based Forest Fıre Risk Zone Mapping in Da Hinggan Mountains. Chinese Geogr Sci 14: 251-257.
Zheng, S., Li, C., Su, X., Quanyi, Q. & Shao G. (2011). Risk Assessment for Effective Prevention and Management of Forest Fires in Lijiang City. Int J f Sustain Dev World Ecol 18 (6): 509-514.
Downloads
Additional Files
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Authors can retain copyright, while granting the journal right of first publication. Alternatively, authors can transfer copyright to the journal, which then permits authors non-commercial use of the work, including the right to place it in an open access archive. In addition, Creative Commons can be consulted for flexible copyright licenses.
©1999 Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
