Seeding and gold medal probability in wrestling: a 2016 Rio Olympic Games analysis

İlkay Doğan; Özkan Işık; Mehmet Cüneyt Birkök

doi:10.14687/jhs.v16i4.5819

Authors

İlkay Doğan Afyon Kocatepe University
Özkan Işık Balıkesir University https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7552-6478
Mehmet Cüneyt Birkök Sakarya University https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7915-1116

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.14687/jhs.v16i4.5819

Keywords:

Bayesian theorem, Competition, Performance, Seeded athletes, Wrestlers

Abstract

The United World Wrestling carried out the implementation of seeding athletes for the first time at the 2016 Rio Olympic Games. For this reason, the aim of the current study was to calculate the probability of winning a medal and becoming an Olympic Champion at the 2016 Rio Olympic Games of seeded wrestlers using the Bayesian theorem. The data were obtained from the results book of the Rio Olympic Games. The obtained data were analyzed Bayesian theorem. According to the results, the probabilities of being an Olympic Champion of first seeded wrestlers were 67.0%, 81.0% and 62.0% for males Greco-Roman, freestyle and female freestyle, respectively. As a result, being a seeded athlete had a great advantage to become an Olympic Champion in the wrestling competitions of the Rio Olympic Games. As the Olympic Games are held every four years, the medals in the Grand Prix tournaments, continental, and World Championships must be scored according to difficulty grade and medal colour, and the Olympic ranking should be established for each weight category. Furthermore, it would provide more competitive, challenging and enjoyable Olympic Games for wrestling and spectators.

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Author Biographies

Özkan Işık, Balıkesir University

Assoc. Prof., Balıkesir University, School of Physical Education and Sports, Coaching Education

Mehmet Cüneyt Birkök, Sakarya University

Assoc. Prof., Sakarya University, Faculty of Education

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